2009 projections from Statistically Speaking

Last week, Brian Cartwright released his 2009 offensive projections over at Statistically Speaking. I figured I would take a look at the Pirates’ numbers. A quick warning…they’re pretty ugly.

Here is a look at projected wOBA in graphical form. In short, wOBA is a stat created by Tom Tango that combines the value of on-base skills and power into a single number that is a more accurate measure than OPS. It is on the scale of on-base percentage, with an average hitter coming in around .340.


2009 Projection


Player wOBA
Pearce 0.349
Ad. LaRoche 0.348
Doumit 0.345
McLouth 0.340
Moss 0.327
An. LaRoche 0.323
Sanchez 0.320
Bixler 0.312
Morgan 0.308
Wilson 0.306
Diaz 0.304
Cruz 0.274


For more perspective, here are some Pirate wOBA’s from 2008.


Actual 2008
Player wOBA
Ad. LaRoche 0.362
Doumit 0.371
McLouth 0.372
Sanchez 0.315
Morgan 0.339
Wilson 0.303

As you can see, Brian has a few Pirates in the average range and the rest as depressingly mediocre hitters. There are a few issues I have with the projections. I don’t see McLouth or Doumit, particularly McLouth, regressing quite so much. Also, I don’t think Pearce will outperform Andy LaRoche to this degree. Freddy Sanchez may rebound a bit more than this. Other than that, this is probably about what we can expect next season. It could get ugly.

Head over to Statistically Speaking to check out the rest of Brian’s projections. Some very good stuff there.


EDIT: It looks like the graphs are not showing up correctly in certain browsers, so I added lists so that everyone can see the numbers.

Posted in Adam LaRoche, Andy LaRoche, Brandon Moss, Brian Bixler, Freddy Sanchez, Jack Wilson, Nate McLouth, Nyjer Morgan, Ryan Doumit, Steve Pearce. Comments Off on 2009 projections from Statistically Speaking
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